A Fourth Turning

"When society passes through a great and perilous gate in history"

First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history (The Fourth Turning)

The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.

The Fourth Turning Tipping Point

By Jeff Thomas

A Fourth Turning is a period in history when all the negative developments over a four-generation period reach a crescendo – a time when the sociopaths are the rulers and are putting the squeeze on the populace.

In addition to an effort to institute totalitarian rule, symptoms include the breakdown of both morality and logic. Black is white; up is down. Confusion and chaos increase in both frequency and magnitude as the Fourth Turning advances.

Those of a libertarian mindset tend to be especially sensitive to and cognizant of these symptoms as they unfold. Since a classic Fourth Turning takes place over roughly twenty years, by the time the halfway mark is reached and the symptoms are peaking, it may appear that “It just keeps getting worse. Won’t people ever wake up and understand that this is crazy?”

Well, historically, the answer has always been “Yes.”

There’s always a turning point, even if it seems that it’s not only a long time coming but that there’s no level of oppression that won’t be tolerated by the masses.

The reason for this is that a Fourth Turning is made possible by complacency. Although there has been a deterioration in self-reliance and reasoning for three generations, a population does not become truly complacent until the latter stages. The deeper the complacency, the greater the oppression by leaders.

Interestingly, complacency is at its greatest in populations where there previously was the greatest prosperity. Therefore, in the present Fourth Turning, the countries that have been most dramatically impacted have been those that had previously been the most prosperous.

Not surprising, then, that the level of governmental controls and, indeed, the oppression of social wokeness is now most extreme in the US, UK, Canada, EU, etc., as, since the last Fourth Turning in the 1940s, they have been the world’s leaders in prosperity. In Second and Third World countries, the level of oppression – and the chaos and confusion that go with it – has been significantly less.

So, if we are to see a turning point, when will it be, and what will cause it?

Historically, there is generally both a political turning point and a social one. They’re not always concurrent, and that’s the case this time around.

In February of 2022, the US placed sanctions on Russia as a result of the Ukraine war. This was predictable. However, the US concurrently confiscated the private property of Russian citizens.

At the time, this didn’t get a lot of publicity in the West, but I believe that, in retrospect, it will be seen as the political turning point. The reason is that most of the countries in the world do not see themselves as world powers. They see themselves as countries that are continually impacted by world powers.

As such, they try to cooperate with the big boys and suffer as little as possible from what the big boys do.

For them, the announcement by the US was a direct threat: “Omigod, if they confiscated assets of the Russian people, they could do the same to us.”

This generated a quiet move away from US influence. Representatives of many countries started to travel to Moscow and Beijing to form new alliances, new trade agreements, and new loyalties to replace the ever-riskier relationship with the US.

Such changes don’t happen overnight, but in the last year, we’ve seen moves away from the petrodollar, the US reserve currency, and increased applications to join the BRICS. Recently, Malaysia became the first country to announce that its preparation to step away from the US is now complete, and they are formally distancing itself from the US.

This trend will expand over the coming year as more countries “come out” in their intention – a trend that will serve both to isolate the US and to increase the collective strength of the BRICS.

But what of that other concern – the social tipping point?

Again, complacency is the overriding stumbling block. In recent years, conservative thinkers have become more and more irate over socialistic notions and, particularly, wokeism. The overreach of Black Lives Matter, climate change, LGBTQ rights, presumed white privilege, and vaccine mandates have become increasingly dominant and seemingly unending.

But recently, there have been cracks in what seemed to be a developing permanence of wokeism. To wit:

• Stanford Law School students drove out a conservative speaker, with angry insults, with students even calling for his daughters to be raped. The moderating Administrator added to the fire, denouncing the speaker as he left. But, in a surprise move, the otherwise liberal Dean suspended the Administrator and announced that all students would be required to attend training on “freedom of speech and the norms of the legal profession.”

• Ana Kasparian of the left-wing “Young Turks” broke with her peers to state, in no uncertain terms, that “I’m a woman. Please don’t ever refer to me as a person with a uterus, a birthing person, or a person who menstruates.How do people not realize how degrading this is?”

• Andrew Tate, a former kickboxer, has become extremely popular with young men and boys due to his presentation as ultra-masculine. His followers comment that Tate represents “everything about their nature that they’ve been forced to suppress.”

This is just a sampling of an increasing surprise reversal of the woke trend. And the key to it is that it has not emanated from the conservative side; it’s coming from liberals themselves.

Essentially, what we’re seeing is the effects of overload – those who previously supported wokeism… until it had taken over their lives. A breaking point is being reached in increasing numbers of liberals as wokeism is simply becoming intolerable.

So, what does this mean for the future? Is the globalist push nearing an end? No, unfortunately, even if it is to be defeated, it still has years to go. And the worst is yet to come. But the pushback is now quietly underway for the first time.

Is wokeism a dead duck? Hardly. But we may be witnessing the turning point – the point at which the narrative becomes intolerable to increasing numbers of people, and the tide turns.

To be sure, leaders never tire of the rhetoric that they create. But sooner or later, their minions – those who are pushing their propaganda – get a bellyful and move on.

This doesn’t happen overnight, but we may be reaching a turning point when it begins to lose its appeal to the very people who are spouting it.

---

---

For those that are interested in the legal issues surrounding Trump’s indictment, (attorney) Jeff Childers’ Substack article “DOUBLE INTENT” is a must read.

---

---