One old guys perspective on why we are where we are

An alternative recent history of US Politics.

This essay was posted as a comment by “Daniel P” in response to an UnHerd piece titled “The revolt of the Rust Belt Democrats have squandered the white working class”. I was so impressed by Daniel’s alternative historical summary that I thought it worth cross-posting on Substack.

Robert M.

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If I may, I would like to offer one old guys perspective on why we are where we are and where I think things are gonna go.

The political issues we face today go back to the 1990’s and the end of the Cold War. The republicans were the party of the country club and Chamber of Commerce, the party of the old Wall Street. The democrats were the union, blue collar party, the party of Civil Rights and Women’s rights, the party of the working and middle class. The country was still largely run by the Greatest Generation with the common experiences of the Great Depression and WWII and the Cold War. Both parties were unabashedly patriotic parties that were proud of their country and its role in the world, both confident in our economic and military strength. Both parties were unabashedly religious. The republicans more on the protestant side and the democrats more rooted in the Catholic Church of their working class base. The democrats were more anti-war and the republicans more aggressive in use of military force. We were only 20 yrs from Roe v Wade and 25 or so from the height of the Civil Rights movement. Busing and race riots were still in the consciousness of the nation.

 
But, between 1992 or so and 2015 a lot would happen that would shatter the direction and makeup of both parties, first in a merging of interests and then a shattering of them.
 

The root of a lot of our issues go back to Bill Clinton and the 3rd Way Democrats. In my opinion, Bill Clinton sold out the working class and blue collar Joe’s (remember Joe the Plumber?) in order to entice Wall Street and Silicon Valley money to the democratic donor pool. Until then, the republicans had been consistently beating the daylights out of the democrats in fund raising and it cost them. Hence we get NAFTA, over the objections of the unions, and financial reform that killed off the Glass Steagle rules and opened the floodgates to financialization. We now had not one, but TWO parties that were dedicated to neoliberal economics, to catering to the interests of the financial class

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It was a process, but over time the working and middle class lost all representation of their interests. Great deal for the donor class, they now controlled the policy of both political parties. The first leg of the Washington consensus was in place. Nobody was fighting free trade, outsourcing, offshoring, or H1B’s or more cheap labor pouring over the southern border.

This all went into hyperdrive under Bush Jr. Then, along comes 9/11 and the war on terror, Afghanistan, Iraq and military action all over the globe. Both parties jump in with full throated support. Money pours in from defense contractors who’s interests align with those at the Pentagon, State Department and the IC. Lot of people with career and financial interests in the government being at war. Easier to get promoted if you have combat experience and the military budget is growing. Easier to make connections with defense contractors for lucrative positions when you retire or get out. Easier to get a job with a think tank of major corporation when leaving the IC or the State Department if you were involved with something dramatic overseas. Easier to justify increased budgets and promotions in government when you are showing value somehow.

Obama and Clinton as Sec State kept up the Bush policies with the exception of Iran. We got into Libya, Syria, kept our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan. In short, now both parties are pro-war neoconservatives on foreign policy. But who is doing the fighting, the dying, the being maimed and crippled? It was the sons and daughters of the working and middle class as it always is. Young men and women from patriotic families with a military heritage, working class kids trying to get some experience and the GI Bill, kids that could not find a job. It was not the sons and daughters of Wall Street titans or Silicon Valley investors or of college professors. No, it was the sons and daughters of plumbers, farmers, trades people and the poor. So, if both parties are now neoliberal on economics and both parties are now neoconservative on foreign policy, how do they differentiate themselves in elections? Answer: Social issues.

So let’s get everybody spun up about abortion and race and gender. Let’s push every emotional button we can on every potential social issue that creates fractures to exploit in peeling off enough voters to take power. But the whole time NOBODY is paying attention to the basic economic needs of the working and middle class who continued to see their jobs disappear, when their very towns did not disappear, when that was not happening they were watching their wages and benefits decline while the cost of housing and other necessities like food and health insurance kept rising faster than inflation overall. Never mind the spiraling cost of a college degree which was being touted as the only hope for good life and stable income.

Into this mix we now throw a cultural transformation of the democratic party from reflecting the values of middle class, middle America, to those of a coastal elite with luxury beliefs. The democrats became the party of a college educated, laptop class, of elites that have nothing but contempt for those of the working or middle class. They sneer at patriotism as being gouache. Remember Obama’s comments about clingers to God and Guns? Hillary and her basket of deplorables? Remember her telling coal workers she would put them out of jobs or telling people they needed to learn to code? This was the time that the term “flyover country” came into being. A whole swath of the country just not worth seeing or listening to. A bunch of retrograde barbarians to be tamed and managed, not consulted.

The culture of the democratic party became that of San Francisco, Manhattan, Boston, and DC, its values those of university sociology professors, Hollywood and wealthy socialites. Arrogant and exclusive and insulated by wealth.

But before I get to 2015 and the appearance of Trump, there were TWO major events that occurred that really drove home the divide between the working and middle classes and their two political parties. The first was China entering the WTO under Bush Jr. which put free trade, globalization, offshoring into hyper drive. The second was the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and Obama’s actions and lack thereof. In short, the big banks got bailed out, or more accurately their investors got bailed out, as compared to what was done for those middle and working class people who saw their jobs, any wealth they had, wiped out, who saw waves of foreclosures that vulture investors would then capitalize on. This was only exacerbated when the Obama administration refused to prosecute bankers out of fear of undermining the confidence in the banks.

This last started something else…Two tiered justice system. That Obama failed to prosecute bankers I think galled a lot of average people. Then comes Hillary and her email server. Now, I work in classified spaces and have been cleared at a high level for over 2 decades. I cannot even begin to express the fury that a lot of people, particularly in government or government contracting felt over that deal. We have all had friends lose careers, some driven to bankruptcy defending themselves, some faced jail time, for far far less egregious security violations. And we all knew that she did it to avoid FOIA and congressional oversight. But then she is not the only senior government official to get a slap on the wrist for violations that would have destroyed any of us that did anything remotely like what they have done. That is just two examples, but I am sure if we were to go back to pre-2015 and Google search we could find many more examples. People saw this and realized that if you are rich, powerful, or well connected, the rules do not apply to you.

Between 1992 and 2015 voters swung right, then they swung left in cycles trying to shake loose the Washington Consensus and get change and their pains addressed by an indifferent or even hostile government. There was a vacuum in the US political system, an empty place that provided no representation for the working or middle classes.

Enter Trump. As Michael Moore said, Trump was the biggest FU the voters ever sent to DC. He talked about the issues that these working and middle class voters had been screaming about for a decade. He mocked the political correctness that so irritated them. He was and is, unabashedly patriotic and unashamed of it. Both parties hated his guts and it felt good to piss them off. They liked his policies even if they did not like the man. Trump’s policies always polled 5 points or more popular than the man.

And THIS is the biggest mistake both parties have made with Trump. They think Trump is a cult of personality called MAGA. He is not. What he is is the only vessel available for a movement that detests both parties and their policies. He talked about fair trade that benefited them and not Wall Street and how China was a great threat when most of DC, Silicon Valley and Wall Street loved them for being a potential market and source of cheap labor and refused to see that we were empowering an authoritarian regime with money and advanced manufacturing and technology IP. He was against more wars that their sons and daughters would have to fight and was about making deals and not being the world’s policeman. In short, he said screw Obama’s “manufacturing is never coming back”, Hillary’s threat to kill coal jobs, the Bill Krystal and Mitch McConnel desire for more wars, and made it ok for people to just speak their minds without having to feel guilt tripped for slipping on some elite sensitivity. He told them that they were ok and valuable and not unseen or unheard, that flyover country and it’s values are really the heart of America. He was flat out unafraid which they respected and wish they could be.

Trump poured in to fill that vacuum the democrats had created.The aftermath of Trump’s election. Imagine you are one of those working class, blue collar, voters that just sent that FU to DC. Now imagine that when that FU, in the form of Trump, shows up and the entire DC establishment you hate, the media that you do not trust, turns around and sets up a “Resistance” to undermine everything you sent him there for? What you hear is that the establishment and its media support are not gonna listen even now, that they are telling you to get back in your place and they have to power to make that happen. Now imagine you are those same people, and all the elites and the big media pundits are calling you racist, Nazi, ignorant losers in the game of life, and that MAGA and those who support it must be destroyed. What would your reaction to that be? Rage? Fear? What that did was link those voters to Trump on a near permanent basis, his enemies were now theirs as well. When the media come flat out and say what was assumed but never said, confirmed for everyone, that the rules of standard journalism did not apply anymore and that all that mattered was getting rid of Trump and his followers, what would your reaction be? Contempt and disgust and complete distrust?

Trump destroyed the republican establishment of the Mitt Romney, vulture capitalists, and the Mitch McConnel neoconservatives and bible thumpers. (Think he ever thought he would be booed at a republican convention?) He brought into the party voters that neither of those men would ever consider worthwhile. He brought the working class, he brought more minorities and he promoted more women. He turned his back on the traditional republican donor class, the Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable class. His life was made easier by the fact that those entities had turned to the democrats and alienated the traditional, Ted Cuz, Marco Rubio types. Both of those latter two have made clear statements while Trump was out of office that the future of the party is multi-racial and working class/middle class. They have surrendered the monied interests to the democrats because they know that the democrats will give the money guys what they want and be aligned with them culturally. Note too how the party is far less attentive to the religious right. Just as Bill Clinton and Obama did with the working class, they are asking themselves where else are they gonna go? The democrats?

But another factor at play is that the republicans are turning over generations faster than the democrats. GenX and Millenials are stepping up. Yes, they are still conservative but these generations care a LOT less about things like gay marriage or abortion, they are less traditional and more pragmatic. They have grown up in a multi-racial/multi-cultural world and are comfortable with it. Multi-racial marriage and gay marriage are normal to them. This generation of republicans has seen the effects of globalization and unchecked corporate influence and distrust both. The Bush generation republicans are dead.

Apart from Harris herself, most of the democratic leaders are old, very old, and their views and the battles they want to fight are the battles of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, not the issues of today.So, where does that leave us? Well, the parties have been going through a realignment for most of the last 30 yrs. Its been a long process. But as things stand today the democrats are the party of big money and elite luxury positions. They are the party of the Martha’s Vinyard set, the Malibu set, the Zuckerburg and Beezos set. The party of hedge fund bundlers and social justice warriors that are not much more than useful idiots to the monied guys and foot soldiers for the party and the children of the professional class. The SJWs are the moral cover for the monied interests running the party. Have the democrats done ONE thing in the last 30 yrs that was a real threat to the economic interests of Wall Street or Silicon Valley? No. Are they likely to? No. Lina Kahn maybe? But the donors are pushing Harris to get rid of her. Sure, they will TALK about it, but it is all just gaslighting. It was not the democratic voters that got Biden to step down, it was the money drying up in a donor revolt. The party is run by the donors and the donors are not going to countenance any real action that threatens their interests. They will toss the SJW’s overboard in a heartbeat if it impacts their bottom line. We have seen that already with ESG policies and now DEI. 

The republicans are further along in their transformation. They are now a national populist party more than a conservative one in the traditional sense. Social issues are less important to them. Apart from what I have previously said about this, you have to include the impact of Roe being overturned. The republicans were the dog that caught the car with that one and they have figured that out. Sure, Roe is gone but they fast found out that a lot of republican women who previously could count on it being there and so could ignore that part of the party platform came out of the woods and said “not so fast”. Politicians like to win and if supporting the elimination of abortions is gonna cost them votes they are gonna step away. That too is gonna be a process that runs state by state but it will be settled there and that is where the battles are gonna be for as long as they last. But do not be surprised if the republicans propose a national bill that would not ban abortions but would actually set a floor for when states can ban them. It would surprise me not at all to see them propose a national minimum of 10 weeks unquestioned and then for the life and health of the mother or incest which would align almost perfectly with where the American people are according to the polling. They would leave the rest to the states. They are also a party less interested in undercutting the social safety net. That is partly political pragmatism and partly a result of the new generations coming up who have seen the economy change so much in their lifetimes and who no longer trust big business. They do not trust the government much either for that matter but ya gotta go somewhere. They are a lot less interested in policing the world and are much more willing to be pragmatic about living in a multipolar world, they are not interested in changing the rest of the world, just preserving the corner of it that is the US. This is a party now more interested in coexisting with hostile powers and autocrats than engaging in wars with them or in regime change. The exception to that might be Iran.

The election? Well, despite the makeover the media is trying to do with Harris and despite Trump’s regular ability to offend, I am putting my money on the Orange Man to win. Rich people can afford to vote on luxury beliefs and on being “inspired”, working people have to be pragmatic and vote their economic interests, they have to be transactional voters. At the end of the day, the first 3 yrs of the Trump presidency were some of the best for working Americans in years. There were no new wars. The border was secure. NAFTA was renegotiated and the Abraham Accords were signed. China was exposed for the creature it really is and tariffs and technology transfer restrictions put in place. Trump was right on NATO not pulling it weight and to question whether it makes sense as it is constructed today. He was right about European dependency on Russian energy. He was right to call BS on the Paris accords, not because the idea of the accords was off but because of the unfair burden it put on the US. He was right about the source of the Covid virus. Yep, he got a bunch wrong too, but on the stuff that matters today he kinda nailed it.

The Biden years have been a disaster. From Covid school shutdowns, to the shifting policies and information on the vaccines and the virus itself, to masking, shutting down the economy, to stupid things like 6’ social distancing. Inflation is out of control due to the excessive money printing. (Yes, the republican house owns that too). That inflation then pushed the fed to jack up rates. From the looks of todays employment data, the downward revisions to previous months data, and things like McDonald’s earnings and the number of low and middle income people at risk of defaulting on car loans among others, it looks like we may already be entering a recession. What is scary is that we may well be looking at deflation instead of just disinflation and deflation will wipe out 401k’s and home values and push cars deeper underwater and the same for homes purchased at the high prices of the last few years with higher rates.

Meaning? Repossessions and foreclosures that will be snapped up for rentals by companies like Berkshire Hathaway that is sitting on $200 billion in cash. It is just now August. This recession could be well underway in the public mind by November. The b***h is that we have no room in the budget to go all Keynesian to fight that recession. Two other stats that I think will matter? More Americans believe Biden and the democrats are a greater threat to democracy than Trump. A huge majority of the population thinks the country is on the wrong track. 

Wow, I did not set out to write and essay. Hope I did not waste your time or mine! Just did a brain dump. Sorry.

“Daniel P”

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